The Case Against Carr

the Case Against Carr

HEISMAN HYPE

COACH LLOYD CARR: MOLDING HEISMAN TROPHY WINNERS AND BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONS - THEY JUST DON’T ACTUALLY PLAY FOR HIM ANYMORE.

“But [quarterback] Chad Henne gave me confidence…he really influenced me.”
--Coach Lloyd Carr
on the sophomore's sideline protest against Carr’s decision-making versus Ohio State.

 

GUTS & GLORY! USC sophomore QB Matt Leinart torches Carr through the air at 2004 Rose Bowl:

SAY 2004 HEISMAN!




“But I think to use a quarterback as a tailback is not something I want to recruit to.”
--Coach Lloyd Carr
when asked whether Michigan would ever go to a spread offense.



RECRUIT THIS! Longhorns QB Vince Young runs at will against Carr in 2005 Rose Bowl. Now he runs toward 2005 Heisman!

He got jobbed in the Heisman this year as everyone caught Bush-fever, but Mr. In-Vince-Able showed why he got hosed in the voting, by getting the last laugh and putting an end to the Trojan dynasty.











BCS ELITE

“…[W]e wouldn’t choose to be here 2-2, but we are. Let’s enjoy it.”
--Coach Lloyd Carr
on Wolverines poor start (again) in 2005.

First Losses: Since the inception of the BCS in 1998

Year
AP Rank @ Time of Loss

Record Overall, Big Ten

Week of 1st Loss
Opponent
Score
1998
5
10-3, 7-1
1
@ Notre Dame
36-20
1999
3
10-2, 6-2
6
@ MSU
34-31
2000
3
9-3, 6-2
3
@ UCLA
23-20
2001
11
8-4, 6-2
2
@ Washington
23-18
2002
7
10-3, 6-2
3
@ Notre Dame
25-23
2003
3
10-3, 7-1
4
@ Oregon
31-27
2004
8
9-3, 7-1
2
@ Notre Dame
28-20
2005
3
7-4, 5-3
2
vs Notre Dame
17-10

 

Some telling statistics:

On average Michigan is ranked fifth in the nation at the time of their first loss.

On average they've lost by week three.
On average they lose three games a year (technically its 3.125 losses/year).
Lastly, they haven't won a non-Big Ten road opener since 1999 when they barely beat Syracuse 18-13, a post-McNabb team on its way to a 7-5 record and a date with Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

So, why is Michigan considered an ELITE program again? We have 3 losses per season - OVER THE LAST EIGHT SEASONS and we’re out of the national title hunt by the second week of September! (Actually, the math says we’re out by Week 2.8, but I was nice and rounded up. By the way, I would have put some BCS rankings here but they don’t start until mid-October—after U of M is finished.) Here we will tell you a little about how we will have a great time together CallTouch. Look at our list, it is very cool.




RIVALRY STATS

CARR, WILLINGHAM, COOPER…AND THE WINNER IS?

YOU’RE FIRED! Ty Willingham was fired by Notre Dame after 3 seasons despite a winning record against Carr. Huh? Doesn’t the losing coach usually get canned?




Rivalry Stats: Carr's record vs ND and OSU since 1998:

Opponent
Overall Record
Home Record
Away Record
Notre Dame
2-4
2-1
0-3
Ohio State
3-5
2-2
1-3
Totals
5-9
4-3
1-6

Good news U of M’ers! In 2006, Lloyd Carr goes on the road against BOTH Notre Dame and Ohio State where he is a collective 1-6 over the last eight seasons! But wait, that’s not all, Notre Dame Junior (and possible 2006 Heisman candidate) QB Brady Quinn announced he won’t go into the NFL draft so he will be waiting in South Bend. Also, Ohio State QB Troy Smith might return to Columbus as well, but only if the Buckeyes are willing to negotiate a new contract with a bigger signing bonus and a no trade clause. I wonder who the third loss in 2006 will be against? Any thoughts Lloyd, or should we just enjoy it?

Rivalry Stats: Carr's record vs ND and OSU coaches since 1998:

Notre Dame
Bob Davie
Ty Willingham
Charlie Weis
1-1
1-2
0-1
Ohio State
John Cooper
Jim Tressel
2-1
1-4

Let me get this straight, against 5 coaches (3 fired, and 2 current) Lloyd has one - ONE winning record? And it’s against John Cooper, who was fired precisely because he had decent teams but couldn’t beat Michigan. Okay, you mean like how Lloyd Carr can’t beat OSU now? Granted, Jim Tressel has really found a way to stretch the mid-level exception of the Buckeye salary cap but c’mon, Bob Davie? Everyone beat Bob Davie! I have a winning record against Bob Davie! (I’m not really a coach mind you…it was a Christmas bonus the site here paid me.)

All U-M stats compiled courtesy of MGoBlue.com



BOWL GAMES

CARR’S BOWL RECORDS OR: DOES THIS MAN HAVE A CAREER STAT WITHOUT THREE @#$% LOSSES

“I think you can make a mistake when you gauge a team strictly by their record.”
--Coach Lloyd Carr
on his 2005 Wolverines 7-4 overall record.

“Fair enough. I’ll gauge the team by their post-season ranking.”
--Andrew J. Maurer
on his 2005 Wolverines #22 AP rank, their worst since the BCS was instituted.

CARR'S BOWL RECORD SINCE 1998:

Year
AP Rank (Prior)
Bowl
Opponent
Result
Score
Final BCS Rank
1998
15
Citrus
Arkansas
W
45-31
NR
1999
8
Orange
Alabama
W
35-34
8
2000
17
Citrus
Auburn
W
31-28
NR
2001
17
Citrus
Tennessee
L
17-45
NR
2002
12
Outback
Florida
W
38-30
11
2003
4
Rose
USC
L
14-28
4
2004
13
Rose
Texas
L
37-38
13
2005
22
Alamo
Nebraska
L
28-32
20
SOURCE: All rankings from this section compiled from www.collegefootballpoll.com and www.bcsfootball.org
All other U-M stats compiled courtesy of MGoBlue.com

Final BCS standings released 1st week in Dec.
BCS only ranked 15 through 2002 (expanded to 25 in '03)
NR = Not Ranked

Michigan's average AP rank going into the bowl is just over 12 and coming out of it their average rank is 9, not much of an improvement, but an improvement nonetheless (2005 rankings were not factored since the final pre-bowl rankings had not been released at the time this was first published). Lloyd's overall record is 4-3 and just 1-2 in BCS appearances, but apparently he likes beating up on the SEC with a 4-1 record. However, it should be noted the Alabama game in the '99 Orange Bowl was won on a 'Bama missed PAT - kind of ironic isn't it.



DEFENSE

“I think we made significant progress”
--Coach Lloyd Carr
on how he would compare this year's defense to last year's

 

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR JIM HERMANN’S “WHAT I DID OVER THE HOLIDAYS” SPECIAL STAT TIME:

Since the BCS started in 1998….

Average # of points allowed in Bowl Games by Michigan Defense: 31.3 (9 games)

Translation: Just shy of FIVE TOUCHDOWNS! I need to emphasize that is the average number of points allowed! Does that sound anything like an “elite” program? I mean, the lowest point total (28) was scored by USC! Can anyone explain to me why they even pay to fly Hermann out to the bowl game? Apparently, because giving up 6 TDs on national TV would be embarrassing, heck, just ask the Detroit Lions.

Contrary to what Coach Carr wants you to believe, the BCS does not award Crystal Footballs for Participation. (Perhaps the more interesting philosophical question is: If the BCS did follow a participation policy, would Illinois (and Coach Ron Zook) get one this year?)

That’s right, Lloyd, this is Division 1-A Football, not the Special Olympics. You have to win to get respect. (Please see Legal Disclaimer below)

Yes, yes, I know, he’s got a winning bowl record by a single game, and with our last bowl win in the “prestigious” 2003 Outback Bowl (against Florida and Coach Ron Zook) we should all be proud alumni!

(Proud Alumni?!?! I think there was a Bloom’in Onion painted at midfield for crying out loud! The Trophy is a @#$% Boom-a-rang!)

Carr better hope that the Alamo Bowl remembers him instead of a bigger bowl like the Citrus…if he wants to keep his “winning” record.

NEW “TEST” SLOGAN FOR THIS SITE:

COACH LLOYD CARR: C’mon, 3 years ago he beat Ron Zook in the Outback Bowl…

LEGAL DISCLAIMER: (Best when read with British accent): The above Special Olympic joke was completely inappropriate and wrong. Fortunately for us, Wolf Vereen suffers from Cerebral Palsy and, we assure you, is quite legitimately handicapped. Per the “Seinfeld Doctrine” this gives him total “joke immunity” with regard to the Special Olympics. All P.C. twits that might still be offended by this funny are cordially invited to kiss his crippled butt.

The Michigan Defensive Coordinator and Carr-proclaimed successor has yet to prove that the “lights out” defense of 1997 was not a fluke.


NATIONAL DEFENSIVE RANKINGS & STATS:

Year
Rank
Games Played
Yards Per Game (YPG)
Yards Per Play (YPP)
Touchdowns Allowed (TDA)
2004
33
12
336.25
5.0
34
2005
42
11
347.64
5.1
24

[Stats complete through 12/3/05, compiled from www.ncaafootball.com]

Finally! Lloyd Carr has finally guaranteed me significant progress! Let’s have a look: 2004 ranking was #33 nationally in D-I and then in 2005 the Wolverines moved up to #42. #42??? WAIT A @#$% MINUTE, that’s not up…that’s significantly down! Well, we’ll do better in YPG. Huh, nope, +11 yards. YPP? No, that’s plus too. Although we’re getting better. Total touchdowns allowed?

Ladies and 'gents, we have a winner: MINUS TEN! HOORAY! I did it! After only one full week of research, I found a significantly positive Jim Hermann statistic and I feel, uh, what’s that? What do you mean it doesn’t include the bowl game? Not the Bowl Game where we’ve given up an average of 5 Touchdowns? I know there’s only one bowl game per year! Well, minus 4-5 TDs is still good considering our EXPLOSIVE 2005 Offensive Unit. Uh, what’s that?

ANDREW J. MAURER'S BELIEVE IT OR NOT LIST OF 2005 TEAMS RANKED ABOVE MICHIGAN IN OVERALL DEFENSE:

#35 Pitt - Did they win a game yet?
#33 Colorado - Didn't they just give up 70 points to Young and company?
#27 Army - Bobby Ross would look good in Maize & Blue. Don’t you agree Coach Herrmann?
#26 Troy - What? Does Brad Pit play middle LB?
#25 Nebraska - Who knew the Big 12 played defense, wait aren't we playing them in the Alamo Bowl?
#24 Middle TN State - Are you @#$ing kidding me?
#23 Toledo - Certainly the last MAC team that would be ranked ahead of us. Unless...
#22 Akron - Naturally. Who doesn’t dream of growing up to play for this MAC powerhouse? Go Fighting Tree Weasels!
#21 Louisville - Rick Pitino has really turned this team around…oops, wrong sport.
#20 Kansas - Didn’t the Texas Longhorns torch these guys?
#17 South Florida - If you’re a team in Florida, chances are you’re ranked above the Wolverines.
#13 Tennessee - Three words: Not Bowl Eligible.
#6 UCONN - Louisville, TN, Kansas, UCONN, shouldn’t I have brackets here to fill out? Final Four here I come!!!
#4 Ohio State - Oh, look, another statistic in which Tressel owns Carr.

IMPORTANT NOTE: In 2004, only 3 TEAMS from the above list ranked ahead of Michigan in Total Defense: #27 UCONN, #16 TROY, & #15 LOUISVILLE

EDITOR'S NOTE: Wisconsin is ranked 101 out of a possible 117 and Minnesota is ranked 87 - and they both beat us!

An Addendum

by Adam Short

edited by Charles Goddeeris
YEAR
TOTAL PTS ALLOWED
POINTS PER GAME ALLOWED
SHUTOUTS
PTS ALLOWED IN BOWL GAME
BOWL GAME RESULT (OPP)
1997
114
9.5
1
16
W (WS)
1998
235
18.08
1
31
W (ARK)
1999
247
20.58
0
34
W (ALA) OT
2000
229
19.08
2
28
W (AUB)
2001
237
19.75
1
45
L (TEN)
2002
265
20.38
0
30
W (FL)
2003
219
16.84
1
28
L (USC)
2004
279
23.25
0
38
L (TEX)
2005
212
20.33
1
32
L (NEB)

[stats compiled from mGoBlue.com; Points Per Game Allowed includes Bowl Game]

A ten point jump the year after we win the championship with a defense he inherited and the stats have never been the same since - enough said.

EDITOR'S NOTES: I believe it is especially important to point out three things:
1) The average over the Herrmann era is 18.64 PPG, bowl games included, and any statistician worth his weight will tell you to also take out the biggest and the smallest number to get a more accurate average and that grows to 19.29 PPG.
2)
We have had our share of shutouts but that hasn't always translated to consistently low numbers as evidenced by 2000 when we had two consecutive shutouts followed by two weeks off and then giving up 54 to Northwestern (in a loss), which leads to:
3
) Given more than a week to plan for the bowl game each year and the Herrmann defense averages 31.33 PPG!! This man has weeks to analyze film and can't figure out a halfway decent strategy; we gave up 31 to Arkansas in '98? Only 34 points allowed vs. 'Bama in '99? Oh wait, that could've been more but their kicker pulled a Rivas and missed the extra point!!



FINAL THOUGHTS

Some final words from Andrew J. Maurer:

I thought it was important that I reiterate the main theme of The Case Against Carr and this website for those who might be Lloyd Carr supporters:

I do not claim with any of the above stats that Lloyd Carr is completely incompetent as a coach; every year he coaches the Wolverines they will get about 7-8 wins and beat MAC teams, Illinois, Indiana, and Northwestern as well as other Big Ten Bottom-feeders.

However, the national perception of Michigan is that it remains an “elite” BCS program. I am here to say that this is not the case. And more to the point, I don’t personally believe that the Wolverines will ever join the ranks of USC, Texas, Virginia Tech, or Ohio State with Carr as coach.

Quite frankly, Michigan has never seriously challenged for the BCS National Championship since it came into existence. Again, they average 3 losses a season, can’t win the major bowls (read: BCS), and can’t beat their rivals under Coach Carr’s leadership. At the end of the day, a team reflects its coach and the Wolverines are a team that considers themselves “elite” mostly because of past accomplishments by other teams, just like Coach Carr.

My final point is this. On this site, you will never here me question that Carr is a good person. As a coach, however, I do, at this time, openly question his will to win. All you have to do is read the quotes in this article to see that Lloyd Carr no longer cares about winning as much as he once did. I don’t know if it was his early success or his health scares, but he seems content just to be here. Moreover, it is my position that anyone who coaches the Michigan Wolverines should eat, sleep and live for the BCS polls. Anything less than a BCS Title should be considered complete failure. I don’t think Carr feels this way and as a result, I don’t think he should remain the head coach.

It’s true what they say, Lloyd. Nice guys really do finish at the Alamo Bowl.

 

LEGAL DISCLAIMER 2: All comments, opinions and jokes in The Case Against Carr are for entertainment purposes only. Except where indicated, no investigative reporting has been done and as such, we really don’t know what Troy Smith’s true contract situation is. Please don’t sue us. Thank you.

--Andrew J. Maurer is a 2000 Graduate of the University of Michigan. Please feel free to email him with comments, concerns and other thoughts related to the team.

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